Active war
The Islamabad ceasefire memorandum has given way to renewed fire around Hormuz, centred on shipping. The IAEA Board has referred Iran to the UN Security Council, and the Houthis now hold Yemen's Red Sea coast.
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Attritional war
US envoys met Putin and Zelenskyy on 5–6 September, after the Kremlin had declared a "deep pause" in talks. Three-way talks may resume. Territory, above all Donetsk, is still the core gap, and Russian gains have slowed.
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Interlocking wars
In Gaza and Lebanon, Israeli withdrawal is now tied in writing to verified disarmament. Israel–Lebanon talks resume in Rome, Syria and Israel are reviving security talks, and Israel's October 27 election sets the pace.
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Continental watch
The Sahel confederation opened its own parliament while ECOWAS bets on talks and a 2027 single currency. Mali lost its defence minister and Kidal, Senegal agreed an IMF programme while restructuring debt, and outside powers compete for Congo's cobalt.
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Demographic watch
The EU reached 452 million people only through migration as births kept falling. The Commission now says productivity must offset a shrinking workforce. Poland still outgrows the EU but posts the bloc's largest population loss.
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Rising-power watch
Israel's 18 August strike on a Syrian airbase tests Ankara's role in Syria. Türkiye signed a joint defence agreement with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. The central bank held its rate at 37% on 10 September, with inflation at 31.5%.
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Nuclear triangle
A Hague court says the Indus Waters Treaty remains in force, and India rejects the ruling. Xi Jinping comes to New Delhi for BRICS as China–India border trade and talks resume, while China supplies 80% of Pakistan's major arms imports.
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Superpower watch
After the Supreme Court ruled out emergency tariffs, Washington now applies duties under other trade laws, including 50% on Canada. IEEPA refunds are cutting customs receipts, the Fed meets on 15–16 September, and midterms come on 3 November.
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