Last updated: September 11, 2026 · Reviewed and improved in place, not re-published as a new post
Where things stand. The EU is still growing, but only because people are moving in. On 1 January 2026 it had an estimated 452.0 million inhabitants, 706,000 more than a year earlier. In 2025, deaths (4.81 million) outnumbered births (3.46 million); net migration of 2.05 million more than filled the gap. The EU fertility rate for 2024 was 1.34 births per woman, the lowest since the series began in 2001. National data show the fall continuing: Germany's rate dropped to 1.32 in 2025 and Italy's to 1.14. Spain and France gained population in 2025 even though both recorded more deaths than births; Germany and Poland shrank. Eurostat projects the EU population will peak at 453.3 million in 2029 and be 11.7% smaller in 2100 than in 2025.
Whether the EU raises productivity fast enough to offset a shrinking workforce. The Commission's Demography Report of 14 July cites Eurostat projections that the EU will lose on average 1.2 million people of working age (15–64) each year between 2025 and 2050. The Commission states that "boosting productivity and unlocking untapped talent will be key to addressing the impact of a shrinking workforce." Two years after the Draghi competitiveness report, the European Policy Innovation Council, a think tank that tracks its 383 recommendations, counts 15.7% as implemented and 41.3% as at least partly implemented in its July 2026 update. Energy, the largest area, has the lowest share at least partly implemented: only 1 of its 83 measures is fully implemented. IMF estimates cited by CaixaBank Research put barriers inside the EU single market at the equivalent of a 44% tariff on goods and up to 110% on services.
Poland is a real economic outperformer. Its GDP grew 3.6% in 2025 and 3.8% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, against 1.4% for the EU. Its GDP per person, adjusted for price differences, reached 81% of the EU average in 2025, up from 68% in 2014. But Poland is not alone: Ireland, Slovenia and Lithuania grew faster than Poland from the first to the second quarter of 2026. On demographics, Poland is worse placed than the EU average. Its fertility rate fell to a record low of 1.068 in 2025. It recorded the EU's largest absolute population loss in both 2024 and 2025, about 165,000 people last year. In the first half of 2026, Statistics Poland counted about 115,000 live births against 210,500 deaths. The "one exception" holds for growth, shared with others; it does not hold for demography.
First, President von der Leyen's State of the Union address in Strasbourg on 16 September 2026. The Commission says she "will share her vision and major initiatives for the year ahead." Watch for deadlines on the unfinished Draghi measures, especially energy. Second, defence. SIPRI reports that European military spending rose 14% in 2025 to $864 billion, and that 22 of the 29 European NATO members spent at least 2.0% of GDP. That spending runs alongside the workforce and productivity pressures above; it does not resolve them. Third, births. France recorded 1.0% fewer births in January–July 2026 than a year earlier.
Issues Focus is compiled from primary official statements and institutional research, cross-checked against reputable reporting. It describes how power, capital, and institutions are moving. Entries are corrected and improved in place as the picture changes, rather than re-published as new posts. — See all Issues Focus segments