Last updated: September 11, 2026 · Reviewed and improved in place, not re-published as a new post
Where things stand. The war has returned to open fire, now centred on shipping. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the Israeli-US attacks that opened it on February 28; the Assembly of Experts named his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8. The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, signed in June with Pakistan as mediator, called for a permanent end to military operations. On August 30, US forces struck Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island, and Iran fired missiles at US forces in Jordan. On September 8, US Central Command said it destroyed five Iranian crude carriers after the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) fired ballistic missiles at a US warship. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says flows through the Strait of Hormuz "remained severely constrained" in August.
First, whether either side returns to the Islamabad memorandum. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says normal conditions in the strait depend on Washington honouring its commitments under it. President Masoud Pezeshkian says Iran "will immediately reciprocate" if it does. President Trump said on September 9: "I think the war will end immediately after the election." Second, whether the Iran-Oman route becomes a wider reopening. On August 25, Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi announced a temporary corridor, 11.3 km wide. A Revolutionary Guard spokesperson said Iran and Oman had agreed their shares of the strait's waters and revenues. Gharibabadi said Iran still does not consider the strait open. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said on September 7 that the Iran-Oman memorandum would likely be registered with the International Maritime Organization within days, but is "not sufficient on its own."
Washington's lever is isolation. The White House says Iran "has exported zero oil from its shores since the blockade resumed in July." On August 24 the Treasury launched Operation Economic Outcast against Iran's digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping sectors; on September 8 it sanctioned 27 Iranian airlines. Tehran's lever is the strait. Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, said Iran would announce a restricted zone outside the strait, and that ships entering it without coordinating with Iran would face sanctions affecting their insurance and future passage. Iran's costs are rising. The Statistical Centre of Iran put annual inflation at 89 percent in the month to August 22. The rial traded at up to 2.4 million to the US dollar on September 8. On August 28, Mojtaba Khamenei pointed to inflation as one of the economic and livelihood challenges to address, and declared that "committing any act that harms social cohesion is prohibited."
On September 9, the IAEA Board of Governors voted 23 to 3, with 8 abstentions, to refer Iran to the UN Security Council — the first such referral in 20 years. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi says the Agency has been unable to verify Iran's uranium enriched up to 60 percent for more than a year. The IAEA estimates Iran held 440.9 kg of it before the June 2025 strikes. Iran's envoy Reza Najafi says the resolution fails "to make explicit reference to aggression" against Iran. The second front is the Red Sea: by September 11 the Houthi movement (Ansarallah) held Yemen's Red Sea coast, including Mayyun (Perim) island in the Bab al-Mandeb strait. Tehran says Ansarallah "makes its own decisions." The IEA says the "continuing impasse in negotiations" between the United States and Iran "delays the prospect of a normalisation of flows into next year."
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