Last updated: September 11, 2026 · Reviewed and improved in place, not re-published as a new post
Where things stand. In Gaza and Lebanon, Israeli withdrawal is tied in writing to verified disarmament. In Gaza, the UN says the October 2025 ceasefire "remains fragile," and Gaza's Ministry of Health counts 1,334 people killed since it was announced. On July 30 the Board of Peace, chaired by President Trump, announced a deal to fully disarm Hamas. In Lebanon, fighting continues despite a framework the US, Israel and Lebanon signed on June 26; the latest escalation began on March 2. Lebanon's Ministry of Public Health counts 4,358 people killed since March 2; the UN counted at least 39 Israelis killed as of June 20. On September 10, Israel's government said taking the Ali al-Taher ridge, 15 kilometres from the border, completes the "consolidation of the security zone." Syria and Israel met in Jordan on August 23, under US mediation, to revive security talks. In the West Bank, Israel opened bidding on August 18 for over 1,200 homes in the E1 area of east Jerusalem.
First, sequencing in Gaza. The Board of Peace says Israeli forces will withdraw beyond the "Yellow Line" "only once decommissioning is complete." Its envoy, Nickolay Mladenov, told the UN Security Council on August 26 that Hamas and other factions "have agreed to hand over their weapons." Hamas spokesman Osama Hamdan says no deal covers all weapons. Israeli officials say Hamas keeps violating the ceasefire. Second, Lebanon's "pilot zones," where the Lebanese army takes over security as the mechanism for "phased and verified redeployments" of Israeli forces. President Joseph Aoun says Israel's strikes "target the framework agreement." Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem calls the framework "null and void." Third, Syria's terms. Damascus says "the occupied Golan is Syrian territory" and seeks an Israeli return to pre-December 8, 2024 positions and the 1974 Disengagement Agreement.
Israel holds the military leverage. In June, the Carnegie Endowment put the ground Israel has taken in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria since October 2023 at around 1,000 square kilometres of what Israel calls "security zones." Israel's calendar sets the pace: a Lebanese official says Israel does not want to discuss the pilot zones before the end of October because of its October 27 election. The US mediates all three tracks. Lebanon has little cushion: the World Bank projects a 6.4% economic contraction in 2026. The UN says Israel withholds some $6 billion in Palestinian funds known as clearance revenues. Türkiye is now a factor: after an Israeli strike on Syria's Abu al-Duhur airbase in August, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: "We will not tolerate a Turkish military buildup moving southward."
Israel–Lebanon talks resume in Rome next week, an Israeli official says; Washington has urged Beirut "to formulate a plan for disarmament in all Lebanese territory." Israel votes on October 27, and President Mahmoud Abbas has set November 28 for Palestinian legislative elections. UNIFIL, the UN force in Lebanon, ends its final mandate on December 31. In Gaza, 60% of inspected homes are severely damaged, destroyed or uninhabitable, with winter approaching. In the West Bank, where OCHA counts 82 Palestinians killed this year, 12 countries, including the UK, France and Canada, said on September 8 they intend to introduce national restrictions, or support European ones, on trade in settlement goods. Israel's Foreign Minister, Gideon Sa'ar, called British accusations "outrageous lies" and ordered the British consulate in Jerusalem closed.
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