Last updated: September 11, 2026 · Reviewed and improved in place, not re-published as a new post
Where things stand. China, India, and Pakistan together hold about 3.1 billion people, roughly 38% of humanity. UN estimates for 2025 put India at 1.464 billion, China at 1.416 billion and Pakistan at 255 million, against a world population of 8.2 billion in 2024. China's statistics bureau reported 1.405 billion at the end of 2025, down 3.39 million in a year. India's next census, Census 2027, has been formally notified. The three countries' weight is clearest in nuclear weapons. SIPRI, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, estimates that China held about 620 warheads in January 2026, up from 600 a year earlier, and says China "is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country." SIPRI puts India at about 190 and Pakistan at about 170. It counts 34 Chinese and 12 Indian warheads as deployed, and says both countries "may now occasionally deploy a small number of warheads mounted on missiles during peacetime."
The Indus Waters Treaty is now the subject of a formal legal dispute between India and Pakistan. India has held the 1960 treaty "in abeyance" since the April 2025 attack at Pahalgam, which killed 26 tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir. Pakistan said any attempt to alter its Indus flows would be "an act of war." On 31 August 2026, a Court of Arbitration administered by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled that India's abeyance decision "was not permissible under the Treaty" and that the treaty "remains fully in force." It also barred India from concreting the Ratle dam wall and power intake above certain levels until 90 days after a separate Neutral Expert's final decision. India did not take part. New Delhi calls the court "illegally constituted," says it has "no jurisdiction whatsoever to pronounce on India's sovereign decisions," and states that the abeyance "remains in force." Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar said Pakistan "welcomes the unanimous award" and that "a binding international treaty cannot be unilaterally suspended or set aside." A second pressure point is Pakistan-administered Kashmir, which Pakistan calls Azad Jammu and Kashmir. A protest movement there demands that 12 legislative seats reserved for refugees go to residents. Authorities proscribed its lead group on 5 June 2026. On 28 July, Amnesty International cited media reports of at least 40 deaths; voting ended in August.
China is running two relationships that pull in opposite directions, and it has not chosen between them. With India, the thaw continues. The two sides completed disengagement at Depsang and Demchok in eastern Ladakh in October 2024. Border trade reopened on 1 August 2026 through the Nathu La, Shipki La and Lipulekh passes, after a halt since 2020; the area around Lipulekh is disputed between India and Nepal. On 25 August, India's national security adviser Ajit Doval and China's special representative Wang Yi held the 25th round of boundary talks in Beijing. Both sides reaffirmed that they will seek "a fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable package solution to the boundary question," and set the next round for India in 2027. With Pakistan, the tie is military. SIPRI finds that 80% of Pakistan's major arms imports in 2021–25 came from China, and that 61% of China's arms exports went to Pakistan. Pakistan commissioned its first Chinese-built Hangor-class submarine in China on 30 April 2026. Trade adds strain to the thaw. China became India's largest trading partner in the 2025–26 fiscal year, but India's deficit with China reached a record $112.16 billion. Growth diverges: India's economy grew 7.8% in April–June 2026, official data show, while Pakistan grew 3.7% in its 2025–26 fiscal year, short of its 4.2% target.
The next test is the BRICS summit in New Delhi on 12–13 September. China's foreign ministry has confirmed that President Xi Jinping will attend at Prime Minister Narendra Modi's invitation, his first trip to India since 2019. At the SCO summit in Bishkek on 1 September, Modi said "there can be no place for double standards" on terrorism, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said "terrorism must be condemned in all its forms and manifestations." Pakistan now chairs the SCO for 2026–27. On nuclear posture, China states it "is always committed to a nuclear policy of no first use," and Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists analysts find "little evidence" that it has deviated. India "has long adhered to a nuclear no-first-use policy," and Modi has said "India will not tolerate any nuclear blackmail." Pakistan has no such pledge. SIPRI notes that in May 2025 India attacked Pakistani bases "likely to have nuclear-related roles, but both sides took steps to avoid escalation." The figures to keep in view are the precise ones: about 38% of humanity, holding roughly 980 warheads between them.
Issues Focus is compiled from primary official statements and institutional research, cross-checked against reputable reporting. It describes how power, capital, and institutions are moving. Entries are corrected and improved in place as the picture changes, rather than re-published as new posts. — See all Issues Focus segments