Effective number of parties: — — higher than any of the eleven historical elections in the comparison set.
Simulation
Most seats
—
Minority parliament
—
Find your riding
All 127 ridings on the official 2026 map.
2026 projection
2022 result (official)
By administrative region
● Léger ○ swing from 2022 base
⚠ Why the ranges are wide
⚠ Back-test against 2022
Polls in the aggregate
Weight = √n × e^(−age/10) × house factor.
Baseline: official Élections Québec returns for all 125 ridings of the 2022 general election, from the dgeq.org open-data archive, mapped onto the 127 official ridings of the 2026 electoral map. Seven regions carry current vote levels from the Léger regional survey (n=11,305); the other ten are projected from their 2022 base by provincial swing and are marked ○. Method, source registry and declared falsification tests: see the methodology document.