Quebec elects 127 members today. Sixty-four make a majority.

The final Léger poll, taken September 30 and October 1, puts the Parti Québécois at 29 percent, the Liberals at 25 and the Conservatives at 20. More than three in four Quebecers say they want a change of government [Léger].

The question tonight is less who governs than how. The Qc125 model gives the Parti Québécois a 38 percent chance of a majority and a 62 percent chance of a minority [Qc125].

That difference matters for one reason above all. Under Quebec's Referendum Act, a referendum can only be held on a question approved by the National Assembly [Referendum Act, ss. 7–8]. A majority government can adopt one alone. A minority government cannot.

Three Things to Watch

1. The Conservatives. The model's range is 11 to 26 seats. Twelve gives the party official status. In a minority, it could hold the balance of power.

2. The books. The Parti Québécois promises a balanced budget in 2028–29, a year before its rivals [PQ framework]. That has a precedent: the Bouchard government wrote the zero deficit into law in the 1990s [Budget 1998].

3. The Outaouais. The region is projected to return four or five Liberals, which would place it in opposition [Qc125 Outaouais]. Papineau is the one seat where the Parti Québécois is in contention: its candidate, Isabelle Millette, trails the Liberal Isabelle Sabourin, 26 percent to 33, within the model's margin [Qc125 Papineau].

We will be back tomorrow with what the result means.

Scope of evidence. Poll figures are from Léger's release of October 3, 2026 (1,000 respondents, online, September 30 to October 1). Seat ranges and probabilities are from the Qc125 projection of October 3, 2026; a projection is an estimate, not a result. The referendum rule is from the Referendum Act (CQLR, c. C-64.1), sections 7 and 8. The balanced-budget commitment is from the Parti Québécois financial framework of September 15, 2026; the precedent is from the Quebec budget speech of March 31, 1998. Candidates are named from party announcements and the Qc125 riding page. This is an analytical description written before the polls closed; it endorses no party and no candidate.