What mattered on Sunday, 1 November 2026

01

US MIDTERMS

US Midterms, Two Days Out: Democrats Need a Net Three House Seats, Four in the Senate, to Flip Congress

Al Jazeera · aljazeera.com ↗

With polls closing Tuesday, November 3, Republicans hold the House 218-214 (two seats vacant) and the Senate 53-47 including independents, meaning Democrats need a net gain of three House seats or four Senate seats to flip either chamber — and a 50-50 Senate split would still leave Republicans in control via Vice President Vance’s tie-breaking vote. A late Pew survey (Sept. 28-Oct. 4) put Democrats ahead on the generic ballot 44% to 36%, with cost of living, immigration and the US-Israel war on Iran as the top-cited issues, and since 1946 the president’s party has lost an average of 26.5 House seats at the midterm. For boards and allocators pricing policy continuity, a Democratic House would mean investigative subpoena power and a brake on further war-funding votes starting in January, while the practical ceiling on either chamber is Trump’s veto pen — neither outcome delivers full legislative control to anyone.

02

FED

Fed Holds at 3.75–4.00% on a 10-2 Vote as Two Governors Dissent for a Hike

Federal Reserve · federalreserve.gov ↗

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.75%-4.00% on October 28 in new chair Kevin Warsh’s second meeting, but the 10-2 vote split matters more than the hold itself: Governors Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, citing strong growth, resilient spending and elevated uncertainty the statement explicitly ties to “geopolitical developments.” That is an unusually hawkish signal from a brand-new chair just as the Bank of Canada moved the opposite direction on the same day, raising its own rate on oil-driven inflation — a policy divergence that will show up first in the US-Canada dollar cross. Anyone positioned for a December cut should re-read those two dissents: the active debate inside the Fed is now whether to hike, not whether to ease.

03

BANK OF CANADA

Bank of Canada Hikes to 2.50%, Its First Increase in Three Years, as September Inflation Hits 3.1%

Bank of Canada · bankofcanada.ca ↗

The Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate 25 basis points to 2.50% on October 28 — its first hike since the last tightening cycle ended — after September CPI came in at 3.1%, above target and driven largely by Middle East-conflict-linked energy prices, with the Bank now projecting inflation near 3.5% by year-end. Governor Tiff Macklem said the move aims to stop energy costs from “spreading broadly” into other prices and that Governing Council will “proceed carefully,” language markets read as leaving roughly even odds on another hike at the December 9 decision; RBC is already forecasting three more increases. For mortgage holders and business borrowers already squeezed by US tariffs, this is a genuine stagflation-adjacent bind — tightening credit into slowing growth — and it directly worsens the debt-servicing math the Finance Minister will have to show in the November 5 budget.

04

OPEC+

OPEC+ Meets Today to Set December Output After Holding November Production Flat

OPEC · opec.org ↗

The eight OPEC+ members managing voluntary cuts — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman and the UAE — meet today, November 1, to decide December output after agreeing on October 4 to hold November production at September’s levels. The group is making that call with Brent still carrying a substantial war-risk premium from the Hormuz disruption and with October now confirmed as the worst month on record for ship attacks in the strait, meaning any signal of an output increase would land directly against a tightening physical market rather than a comfortable cushion. Treasurers and procurement teams hedging Q1 2027 fuel costs should treat today’s communiqué, not next month’s price action, as the first hard data point — OPEC+ historically telegraphs intent before producers move a single barrel.

05

HORMUZ

Ship Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz Hit a Record High in October, Damaging 11 Supertankers in a Single Month

Al-Monitor (Reuters) · al-monitor.com ↗

Reuters-tracked data shows October was the worst month on record for ship attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz since the US-Israel war with Iran began in February — 28 confirmed or reported attacks per Washington Institute analyst Noam Raydan, out of 113 since the war started, with the UK’s UKMTO logging 135 conflict-related incidents through October 16 and the IMO confirming 11 supertankers damaged in October alone, about 3.5% of the entire global VLCC fleet. Analysts attribute the intensifying pace to Iran deliberately slowing shipping recovery and keeping pressure on energy markets ahead of the US midterms, with shipowners still sailing into the Gulf for freight rates above $1 million a day despite the risk. For insurers, charterers and anyone modeling tanker availability into Q1, the trend line — not any single incident — is the signal: risk is rising into the vote, not plateauing.

06

CANADA BUDGET

Ottawa’s Budget Lands November 5 as the PBO Flags a Widening, Less-Disciplined Deficit Track

Investment Executive · investmentexecutive.com ↗

Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne confirmed Canada’s 2026 federal budget will be tabled November 5, and the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s updated outlook, released the same week, projects a 2026-27 deficit of $63.3 billion — down from June’s $71.8-billion estimate thanks largely to higher gas-price-linked revenue — but still peaking near $70.2 billion the year after, with the operating budget now expected to balance in 2028-29, a year later than promised. PBO Annette Ryan was blunt that the government’s own fiscal anchors “have imposed limited fiscal discipline on government spending and borrowing,” and deficit-to-GDP is still projected to rise in two of the next five years, meaning Carney will table this budget already behind his own targets. Bondholders and anyone pricing federal borrowing costs now have the PBO’s pre-budget bar in hand — watch Thursday for whether the actual numbers beat or miss it, not the spending headlines.

07

CANADA STEEL

Carney and Ford Unveil Nearly $9 Billion for Steel, EVs and Ring of Fire Mining as Ford Declares the US Relationship ‘Permanently Changed’

BNN Bloomberg · bnnbloomberg.ca ↗

Prime Minister Carney and Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced a combined federal-provincial package — $5 billion to upgrade Ontario steel mills, $2.5 billion to help automakers shift to EV production, and $1 billion for roads into the Ring of Fire mining region, plus a new Joint Steel Action Fund and strengthened CBSA anti-dumping enforcement — with Ontario contributing $2.67 billion of the total. Ford was explicit that this isn’t a temporary bridge: “Canada’s relationship with the United States has changed permanently… we’re not going back to the way things were,” while Carney framed the spending as building domestic demand rather than just absorbing tariff damage. For steel and auto suppliers, the Joint Steel Action Fund and the frozen EV emissions standard (held at 172 g/mile through 2029) are the two mechanisms worth tracking for actual contract and compliance impact, since the broader package signals a durable shift toward import substitution, not a one-off relief payment.

08

UKRAINE

Putin Agrees ‘in Principle’ to Resume Three-Way Ukraine Talks After November 10 Following a Three-Hour Witkoff Meeting

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution (AP) · ajc.com ↗

US envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Vladimir Putin for roughly three hours at the Konstantin Palace outside St. Petersburg on October 21, with Putin adviser Yuri Ushakov saying the Russian leader agreed “in principle” to resume three-way US-Russia-Ukraine talks after November 10 — what would be the first such format since February — while dismissing the Ukrainian-European Oslo proposals as containing “little of real value,” then softening to call them a step in the right direction. Russia also released American detainee Stephen Hubbard as what Witkoff called a goodwill gesture, and Putin separately raised the idea of a US-Russia-China leaders’ meeting at an economic summit in China. For anyone pricing Ukraine-exposure risk or European energy contracts tied to a peace settlement, the operative fact is timing: nothing moves before November 10, and Washington is still negotiating energy terms — including a recent Russian diesel-supply deal — bilaterally with Moscow, outside the Kyiv-European track, a split Ukraine and its allies have already called alarming.

09

META EARNINGS

Meta’s Net Income Triples to $9.86 Billion as Zuckerberg Raises 2026 AI Capex to $135–145 Billion

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution (AP) · ajc.com ↗

Meta posted third-quarter revenue of $64.6 billion, up 26% year over year and above the $63.34-billion Wall Street estimate, with net income tripling to $9.86 billion even after absorbing an $18-billion multistate teen-safety settlement and a $25-billion New Mexico privacy judgment this quarter — and the company narrowed its 2026 AI capital-spending guidance to $135–145 billion while guiding Q4 revenue to $73–76 billion. Zuckerberg said Meta’s Muse AI agent, launched in August, has already passed 10 million US and Canada accounts, calling the quarter a step toward “personal superintelligence,” and headcount is down 15% year over year with no new layoffs announced. For anyone benchmarking how Big Tech is pricing AI investment against mounting regulatory and legal liability, Meta’s answer this quarter is unambiguous: spend through it — capex keeps rising even as settlement costs climb.

10

TESLA EARNINGS

Tesla’s Profit Falls 43% as R&D Spending on AI and Robotics Jumps 69%

Electrek · electrek.co ↗

Tesla’s third-quarter revenue held flat at $28.05 billion and deliveries fell 2.1% to 486,532 vehicles, but GAAP net income dropped 43% to $787 million as operating margin compressed to 2.6% from 5.8% a year earlier, and R&D spending jumped 69% to $2.76 billion on AI, Optimus and Cybercab development while capex more than doubled to $4.73 billion. Free cash flow nearly collapsed, from $3.99 billion to $1.53 billion, and the company pointed to battery supply constraints for flat auto sales and tariff-related customer refunds for a 16% drop in energy-division revenue. For anyone holding Tesla as an AI-robotics bet rather than a car company, this is the clearest evidence yet of what that pivot is costing in margin terms right now — the hardware business is funding the bet, and the bet has not yet started paying for itself.

11

GAZA

Israeli Strikes Kill Five in Gaza, Including a 7-Year-Old Girl, as Tanks Push Past the ‘Yellow Line’

Oman Observer (AFP) · omanobserver.om ↗

AFP reports Israeli airstrikes killed five Palestinians in Gaza on October 26 — three at a displaced-persons camp in Al-Mawasi including 7-year-old Jouri al-Soufi, one near a tent camp outside Khan Younis, and one in Gaza City’s Rimal neighborhood — while a security source described tanks and bulldozers advancing into territory east of Deir al-Balah, past the “Yellow Line” boundary set under the ceasefire. Gaza’s civil defense put the broader 24-hour toll at 13 killed and roughly 60 wounded, continuing a pattern in which more than 1,200 Palestinians have died since the nominal ceasefire began, even as the disarmament framework the Board of Peace brokered remains contingent on a fuller Israeli withdrawal Hamas says has not happened. Any company or NGO planning Gaza reconstruction financing or logistics should treat the Yellow Line as a live, contested boundary, not a settled fact on a map.

12

QUEBEC

Three Weeks In, Quebec’s New PQ Minority Government Still Has No Path to the Referendum It Promised

BNN Bloomberg · bnnbloomberg.ca ↗

The sovereigntist Parti Québécois won Quebec’s October 5 election with 59 of 127 seats — five short of a majority — ahead of the Quebec Liberals’ 40, the Conservatives’ 19 and Québec Solidaire’s 9, while the governing CAQ was shut out entirely and leader Christine Fréchette lost her own seat. Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon campaigned on holding a third sovereignty referendum during his first term, but every other party has ruled out cooperating on that question specifically, and without a majority he cannot call one without support he does not currently have — making the real near-term story not independence but whether a minority PQ government can pass a budget at all. For anyone with Quebec-based operations, financing, or federal-transfer exposure, the referendum threat is now a standing background risk rather than a forced near-term event, and the government’s first fiscal test will tell you more about its durability than any sovereignty rhetoric will.

Compiled from primary reporting across North America, Europe, the Middle East and Asia, cross-checked against outlet sources and targeted web search. Ranked by decision impact, not by section. Every item links to its originating source.