What mattered on Saturday, 24 October 2026

01

OIL

Brent Hits Five-Month High Near $115 as Houthi-Saudi Attacks and UAE Oil Spill Compound Supply Fears

CNBC Africa · cnbcafrica.com ↗

Brent crude touched $115.16 a barrel Friday, its highest intraday level since May, as Houthi attacks on Saudi energy and government targets compounded a Gulf oil spill and a shuttered Libyan pipeline valve — the third straight weekly gain for the benchmark. UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo said the market “remains concerned about a potential escalation” even as Gulf exporters have been pushing volumes above pre-war levels. Energy buyers and hedgers should treat this as a structurally tighter market, not a one-off spike — the supply cushion that absorbed earlier shocks is now being drawn down from multiple directions at once.

02

SAUDI ARABIA

Saudi Arabia Postpones “Davos in the Desert” Investment Summit to 2027 After Deadly Attacks

Khaleej Times · khaleejtimes.com ↗

Saudi Arabia has postponed the Future Investment Initiative — its flagship “Davos in the Desert” conference, due to run October 26-29 — to 2027, after Houthi strikes on Aramco’s headquarters and Riyadh’s international airport killed at least 18 people and wounded hundreds this month. Semafor reported that major banks and private-equity firms had privately raised safety concerns about attending alongside PIF Governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan, even with CEOs such as Goldman Sachs’ David Solomon and Citi’s Jane Fraser on the draft speaker list. This is the clearest signal yet that the conflict has crossed from a market-risk story into a direct deterrent on Gulf capital-raising events; executives weighing Saudi-linked deals or travel should expect further disruption to the kingdom’s investment calendar before any de-escalation.

03

BANK OF CANADA

Reuters Poll Flips: Majority of Economists Now Expect Bank of Canada to Hike to 2.50% on October 28

Reuters · investing.com ↗

A Reuters poll of 34 economists taken October 21-23 shows 56% now expect the Bank of Canada to raise its overnight rate a quarter point to 2.50% on October 28 — a sharp reversal from last month’s poll, where 80% expected a hold through year-end. The flip follows Governor Tiff Macklem’s own warnings and survey data showing rising inflation expectations, even as September inflation at 3.1% sits near the top of the Bank’s target band and growth has slowed to a 1.3% median pace in Q3 from 3.3% in Q1. Treasurers and mortgage-rate watchers should price in the hike as the base case now, not the tail risk it was three weeks ago, with a further move to 2.75% possible by March.

04

FEDERAL RESERVE

Fed Set to Hold Rates October 28 as All 100 Economists in Reuters Poll Expect a December Hike

Reuters · kitco.com ↗

All 100 economists in a Reuters poll taken October 16-20 now expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates a quarter point in December, up from fewer than half who expected that a month ago, even as 94 of 100 see the Fed holding at 3.75%-4.00% on October 28. The shift reflects inflation that has run above target for nearly six years, oil above $100 a barrel, new tariffs, and a resilient economy still growing at a 2.2% pace on the back of AI-driven investment — with Chair Kevin Warsh offering markets little forward guidance. Rate-sensitive sectors should treat December, not October, as the live decision date, and note that a growing minority of forecasters now see the Fed hiking twice more beyond that.

05

MARKETS

Wall Street Closes Lower Friday, Logging Back-to-Back Weekly Losses as Oil Surge Compounds Tech Jitters

Yahoo Finance · finance.yahoo.com ↗

The Dow fell 652 points (-1.23%) Friday while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched a second straight weekly loss, as Brent’s push toward $115 compounded lingering anxiety over AI-infrastructure spending after Thursday’s tech rout. Apple briefly overtook Nvidia as the world’s most valuable company, with each worth roughly $5.1 trillion before Nvidia reclaimed the lead, while American Express fell 3% on news of a restructuring charge even as it beat earnings and raised guidance. Portfolio managers should read the week as confirmation that oil and AI-capex doubts are now moving markets together, not as two separate risks to hedge independently.

06

FRANCE

Macron Bans “Illegitimate” Protests as French Bond Risk Premium Hits Widest in 15 Years

Reuters · investing.com ↗

President Macron said France will ban “illegitimate” protests in the coming days and blamed “seditious” ultra-left groups for riots and looting, while Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin pushed to suspend voting rights for those who defy the bans — as the risk premium on French debt over German bunds widened to its widest in 15 years and the 10-year yield hit 5.14%, its highest since July 2002. All Saturday protests in Marseille and Lyon have been banned outright, and businesses from Hermès to the Art Basel Paris fair are tightening security or shutting down for the weekend. Investors and executives with French exposure should treat the bond market’s reaction, not the protest bans themselves, as the signal that matters — markets are now pricing a political crisis, not just a public-order one.

07

NVIDIA

Nvidia’s China AI Chip Share Falls to 34% as Huawei and Domestic Rivals Close the Gap

Reuters · finance.yahoo.com ↗

Nvidia’s share of China’s AI data-center chip market fell to 34% in the first half of 2026, per IDC data cited by Reuters, as shipments dropped 44% year-over-year to about 678,000 units — while Huawei grew to a 28% share and four other domestic chipmakers now hold a combined 19%. The squeeze runs both ways: Washington still bars Nvidia’s most advanced chips from China, while Beijing has resisted even the limited, approved pool Washington allows through. Chipmakers and investors betting on Nvidia’s China upside should recognize that the addressable market itself is shrinking as domestic substitutes mature, not just that Nvidia is losing share of a fixed-size pie.

08

AMERICAN EXPRESS

American Express Beats on Q3 Profit, Raises Full-Year Guidance Despite Restructuring Charge

American Express (SEC filing) · sec.gov ↗

American Express posted Q3 revenue of $20.1 billion, up 9%, and raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $17.60-$17.90, even after absorbing a $336 million pretax restructuring charge tied to “efficiency initiatives” and announcing an agentic-commerce push that includes an OpenAI integration through Resy. Shares still fell roughly 3% as investors read the restructuring charge and AI investments as a signal of cost pressure ahead, despite CEO Stephen Squeri’s guidance for another year of 10% revenue growth. Card-network and consumer-credit analysts should treat the gap between AmEx’s strong headline numbers and its stock’s negative reaction as evidence that the market is now pricing restructuring charges as a leading indicator, not a one-off.

09

ISRAEL

Israel Heads Into October 27 Election Too Close to Call as Eisenkot’s New Party Rivals Netanyahu’s Likud

Al Jazeera · aljazeera.com ↗

Israelis vote October 27 for a 26th Knesset in a race neither Netanyahu’s Likud-led coalition nor the opposition bloc is clearly favored to win, with retired general Gadi Eisenkot’s new Yashar party described as “evenly matched” with Likud itself. The contest turns on an unresolved inquiry into the October 7, 2023 attack, ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions, judicial reform, and a cost-of-living squeeze after defense spending doubled since 2023 — with Netanyahu seeking another term while on trial for corruption. Investors and policymakers tracking Israeli politics should expect a prolonged coalition-formation period of up to six weeks regardless of the outcome, since no party has ever won a majority outright.

10

CANADA HOUSING

Canadian Housing Starts “Virtually Flat” as Urban Starts Fall 11% From a Year Ago, CMHC Says

CMHC · cmhc-schl.gc.ca ↗

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation says September housing starts ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 248,896 units, with the smoothed six-month trend “virtually flat” at 250,411 — but actual urban starts fell 11% from a year earlier and year-to-date starts are down 4%. Deputy Chief Economist Aled ab Iorwerth warned that under-building now, during a softening market, is itself a key risk, noting only Quebec among the four largest provinces is seeing modest gains this year. Homebuilders, lenders, and policymakers banking on a supply response to Canada’s affordability crisis should read this as confirmation that the slowdown is broadening, not stabilizing, just as the Bank of Canada weighs a rate hike that would raise builders’ financing costs further.

11

VENEZUELA

Maduro Pleads Not Guilty to New Torture Charge as Trial Pushed to June 2027

Courthouse News Service · courthousenews.com ↗

Nicolás Maduro pleaded not guilty on October 15 to a new superseding indictment charging conspiracy to torture at least nine victims, three of them US citizens, as his federal trial in Manhattan was pushed back two weeks to June 14, 2027. Defense lawyer Barry Pollock called the delay “aggressive” but workable, while the torture charge — unsealed during a separate, unsuccessful bail hearing for Maduro’s wife, Cilia Flores — now sits alongside the original narco-terrorism case built around his January capture in a US military raid. Firms and governments still calibrating their Venezuela exposure should note the case is expanding in scope, not narrowing, nearly a year after Maduro’s removal — the legal process, not a negotiated transition, remains the operative framework.

Compiled from primary reporting across North America, Europe, the Middle East and Asia, cross-checked against outlet sources and targeted web search. Ranked by decision impact, not by section. Every item links to its originating source.